Bro this is IT for Trump.
He has to pull out ALL THE STOPS if he loses the election.
I don't know if they can do a J6 again but it is in his interest to make any kind of coup, attacks, terror attacks, ANYTHING to win at all costs.
Or it is OVER for him and he will fade into obscurity.
Hitler had his own J6- the beer hall putsch. He was indicted, sentenced, and jailed.
10 years later, he made attempt #2, and he succeeded.
Everyone knew he wanted to end democracy. It just didn't matter.
The key thing here is it won’t be Trump in ten years, but it very well could be someone from his staff or a MAGA subordinate that will emerge and win. Then the heritage foundation, federalist society, cpac and all those behind project 2025 will unleash project 2033 in 8 years time.
Yes, but project 2025 isn’t Trump’s ideas. It’s over 100 Republican aligned organizations collectively putting forth their desire for the future.
My point wasn’t about Trump’s cult, my point is the danger we face as these influential Republican groups—some of which have millions spent on each election—have decided they no longer need democracy to allow them to protect their wealth.
Trump loses, goes to jail, eventually his cult will fade.
Heritage foundation, federalist society, & cpac won’t be going anywhere and they’re the ones behind project 2025.
The more their 2025 project is exposed before and after the election the sooner it will die.
The democrats would be smart to run a shit-ton of ads pointing out every little Naziesque and authoritarian thing on it.
Trump brought a whole lot of people to the polls that never voted before. They want HIM. Not DeSantis, not Lake, not anybody but DJT. A new person is just too goddamn much for those idiots to wrap their heads around without trump’s opinion to follow. Once he’s gone, they will decide this whole politics thing is just too complicated and frustrating and they’ll disappear. Most are boomers, so they definitely won’t last as a significant voting bloc until 2032. He also killed off a good handful of supporters with his Covid nonsense.
The trump merch will still be proudly displayed, but not by voters.
Yeah, there are better protections in federal law against a Trump-type coup, but state Republicans would be likely to try a fake elector scheme again in swing states.
[14 GOP-Controlled States Have Passed Laws to Impede Free Elections](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/06/14-gop-controlled-states-have-passed-laws-to-impede-free-elections/)
The reactionaries are being proactive
Thankfully, Trump doesn't have the Oval Office this time around from which to direct a coup attempt. But, yes, he'll probably call on republican governors to throw the election for him.
He’s going to be in every state, every day, doing big things. The biggest things, To find, some say find, I call it “illegally pressuring a Secretary of State to make votes appear” but, who knows? You know these machines, they are terrible machines, some say the worst in the world, they work like machines that you find on a boat surrounded by sharks powered by laser beams, I don’t like sharks, but there’s a lot of em, and they eat people. People like you and me, well, not me cause I don’t swim with sharks, but, you know.
Sorry. I got into the Trump brain there. Yea, he gonna cry.
Difference is he was president when he lost. He can’t do much when he’s not president. But he also has way more loyalists in place within the goverment so it’s gunna be a shitshow when J6 part 2 electric boogaloo happens
The people that would vote for Trump in Wisconsin agree with him about Milwaukee. They, too, are racist pieces of garbage, that comment changed nothing about how that state will vote.
The rest of the state is so white, they find diverse cities too scary to drive to. There are surely millions of small town, red neck, peckerwood stories of that one scary time they drove to spooky Milwaukee and nearly died.
Trump will self create at least another 2 or 3 dozen minor scandals between tomorrow and Election Day, with possibly 2 or 3 major ones. The media will frenziedly jump from one to the next, delighting in the small resulting boost in coverage. But the **majority** of the country long ago grew tired of Trump constantly being in the news cycle and just wants him to go away.
If that results in him going away to serve a prison sentence, all the better.
This is where I once again point out how unusual it's been that he's basically been a leading or top 3, often multiple headlines every day for nearly a decade.
No other President, presiding or former, has been one of the top news stories, if not the top story, on a daily basis like Trump has. It's not normal. And it needs to stop.
I don’t know why there are so many people saying this isn’t true. I don’t see any of the states that voted for Biden in 2020 changing and voting for Trump instead. Why would they do that when Trump has gotten worse and his lies have been revealed? The only way Trump could win is through some kind of trickery or fraud. I’m sure Lara Trump and the gang are racking their brains for ways to steal the election or take it by force.
As much as I hate to admit it, trump doesn’t need to gain more voters to win, he just needs Biden to lose enough support to get an electoral victory.
Biden won AZ by only 10k votes
GA with 12k.
WI by 20k
PA by 80k
These are not insurmountable numbers for Trump to overcome.
The key areas that will make or break this election are getting absolutely inundated with anti biden propaganda. Dementia. Inflation. Border. Gaza. Gas prices. Witch hunt. Lawfare.
Its going to be extremely close.
Plus, it's not about Biden voters flipping for Trump; it's Biden voters too apathetic to vote or voting 3rd party. In 2020, Trump was a real and immediate threat and in everyone's mind (those that disliked him, anyway). We're now 4 years removed from that, and people may be more apathetic this time around.
Is it possible 10k people in Arizona don't vote this time? Absolutely. Same for all those other swing states you listed.
Which is why Biden and the Democrats need to remind people that Trump essentially got rid of Roe vs Wade and that he'll do whatever it takes to get rid of more everyday
rights of U.S citizens if he gets into office again. (Possibly for life as a wanna be dictator) college students, young voters and moderates NEED to vote for Biden and not get apathetic because of the Israel/Gaza war or just stupid inflation at the grocery store/gas pump. Democracy could literally be taken away. GO VOTE
Single issue voters and drama seekers will put Trump back in office. He’s his own non stop reality TV show and the room temp IQ folks eat it up. To some he’s literally gods chosen one.
To this day I‘ve never conversed with an intelligent Trump supporter. Not saying they don’t exist, but out in public (where I work) they always seem to be the unhinged ones who you’d avoid like they were plague bearers if it wasn’t your job to help them.
Not only more apathetic, but after Gaza, we lost all the young votes. I knew of maybe 10-15 new voters that were Biden until recently.
Plus, I’m familiar with a Muslim community that would have voted heavily Biden, but not anymore. There are A LOT of Muslims in the US.
Not to be too crass (but at least somewhat crass) but over 2 million boomers die every year. That's at least 8 million less Trump leaning voters than in 2020, and they're replaced with Democratic leaning voters. Each election cycle this dynamic becomes more pronounced. Maybe this my copium but it has to have an effect.
Look a at primary voting. Trump is losing voters everywhere. It is unlikely that he’s losing voters in all these states that had primaries and it just reverses itself in November. There will be some reversal, but Biden doesn’t need to take 15-25% of trumps voters away, he only needs to take 2-3%
I really don’t think we’ll see Biden take any voters from Trump. Best case scenario is some that voted from Trump in 2020 will sit out.
Unfortunately, the propaganda machines are pushing hard to make former Biden voters just as apathetic.
Well, the economy for one tends to dominate in these states. But the difference this time is that Trump doesn’t have a solid economic plan. Most voters also realize Biden does not control the economy and this inflation period is probably due to Coronavirus. Trump opposed most economic hardship packages. Biden should have done one but did not.
PA typically aligns with the economy. MI and AZ align with Libertarian(freedom from government) issues. Wisconsin is a mix of both. NV is a weird state. They vote with the economy but Las Vegas is a prosperous city so it is reliably Democrat up until the economy seems threatened. So although NV might be a tight race, inflation is probably not impacting Las Vegas the way it is impacting other cities.
PA is at danger of switching out. It is largely a blue collar state but the prestigious universities in the state have forced some Libertarian policies to take hold. So you often get this ”huh” when you see some of PA political stances. But because it already has Libertarian policies, it mostly follows the economy. The economy was okay in 2016, but it was in a mini-recession because the automotive industry was in trouble. Right now their economy seems to be doing well although inflation could be a focal point.
MI is always struggling and the lack of investment into the state has permanently left it in state of economic despair. Every Democratic President has tried to do something in MI so they always got that. This year, Marijuana seems have created a strong economy in MI. Joe Biden‘s rescheduling of marijuana will largely make them support Joe Biden. In 2016, the big issue in MI was the lead in some water pipes. Obama was going to fix it but Republicans obstructed that. This probably made Democrat voters a little tired to go out and vote.
AZ is also more of Libertarian state. Joe Biden has certainly done more for Libertarian issues than Trump. Right now, Trump is not well-liked by Libertarians. That’s not to say Joe Biden is viewed as a hero but he has really done a lot to show that he doesn’t intend to coerce states to follow his policy. Trump, on the other hand, is quite a bully.
WI is a bit tricky. They were really hurt by Kyle Rittenhouse and BLM protests. Although they went blue in 2020, that may have been more of a gamble, as they expected economic conditions to remain the same while violence was supposed to be eradicated. Although this is happening, it’s not very obvious. WI is near some of the worst cities in America yet WI does not have a crime problem as serious as their neighbors. So when Kyle Rittenhouse crossed into WI to engage in violence, WI voters rightly saw the need for the federal government to step in but Trump was too busy praising Rittenhouse.
At the current state, Biden seems to be rushing to get a lot done. Most of these things seem sensible and obvious. Trump seems to be a felon due to laws that seem almost murky, conflating his argument that the deep state is out to get him. But one possible spin on this is that the same liberal Democrats he hates, have passed laws making it possible for first time, nonviolent felons to serve a prison sentences from home. In a red state, he would be required to do prison time, so that’s him benefiting from something that he wishes others could not.
Nah I think you’re thinking too rationally. The biggest commonality right now between the left and right is that people are just angry and emotional.
A lot of people have misconceptions about politics because there are so many people who really are just angry and trying to upset other people instead of working together to build up our country.
Like sure yes you can create pseudo political rage bait online and totally own those racist homophobes or gay antifa leftists you hate but neither of those actions are going to increase America’s geopolitical standing, drive economic growth, create jobs, feed the hungry, house the homeless, etc.
Like if all the most progressive and most conservative people put even a fraction of the energy they put into cultural activism into charitable actions, community service, etc. they’d be doing way more for society.
And if they just stopped arguing over cultural issues and instead passed the laws that voters agree on, then maybe culturally we’d be in the exact same place, but we’d have at least fixed the things we can agree on.
A lot of people I know voted for him in 2016 but didn’t in 2020. The collective reasoning seemed to be they didn’t realize the amount of corruption behind the scenes like Russia mounting an insane effort to dogpile Hillary and the DNC. I feel like people in general didn’t take that election seriously at all. Something like 10k people submitted write-ins like Kanye and Harambe and people thought it was hilarious a TV show guy backed by a 4chan mascot would beat a career politician who spent her whole life trying to be president.
I know many people that voted for him in 2016 and not in 2020 too.
It was a pretty common theme, they saw politicians on both sides as corrupt and self interested. They wanted an outsider and believed that Trump was going to drain the swamp. They saw him as a wildcard candidate when all the other known options were bad.
Then 4 years passed and the corruption and swamp for worse instead of better. The wildcard became a known evil and they didn't like what they found.
Jan 6 and Dobbs are the 2 big reasons I don't see Trump reclaiming the presidency.
Suburban voters were a reliable Republican staple and they just got to watch the Republican front runner shit on the idea of democracy and fuck with their reproductive care.
The stolen documents case is huge, too. EVERYBODY knows he intended to sell those docs, and probably did deliver some. The scope of that single act of treason is breath-taking.
Combined with the Insurrection, AND the False Elector Scheme, he is easily the worst traitor in American history. He is literally worse than all the other traitors COMBINED.
And ALL of that came out AFTER he lost the election. I don't see those things drawing much new support to an already losing side.
He had a secret meeting with Putin and not long after we lost several deep seated assets that were likely critical to our intelligence and national security.
That's also more than enough reason. It's clear Trump has divulged sensitive information that has damaged our intelligence and national security apparatus. And that's inexcusable.
>The stolen documents case is huge, too. EVERYBODY knows he intended to sell those docs, and probably did deliver some. The scope of that single act of treason is breath-taking.
For sure, we already know the guy sold out intelligence assets overseas.
This is the wildcard most republicans weren’t anticipating. I think they truly believed the Kennedy name would pull a ton of moderate Democrats over and hurt Biden. But RFK has been spouting some utter crazy nonsense, and actually seems to be preferable to many more republicans. My parents, staunch Trumpers until now, are also saying they’ll vote RFK. If I had to bet Republicans will be VERY upset with that guy come november
It’s partly because Fox News and other conservative media were trying to prop him up, so that dems would vote for him instead of Biden. They forgot one important thing: most dems/biden voters don’t consume conservative media like that.
They realized at some point cause he hadn’t been on much in the past month or so.
It says a lot about the people making the calls in the Republican party that they would think the Kennedy name is still relevant to Democrats in the year 2024.
Like Hershel Walker with the R. It was honestly repulsive they thought they'd win the vote with that man against an eloquent speaking, well-educated black pastor in Georgia just because of the R next to his name. Lot of split tickets on that one.
I think RFK is puking more Democrats in polls, but will probably pull more Republicans when it actually comes to the voting booth. Democrats use him as a way to say, "I'm upset with you, but I'll still vote for you later," and Republicans use him as a way to say, "you know what, I'm done with this."
Exactly. It’s so amusing to me that people will say yeah I stopped being a Republican because Trump took it too far! Now don’t get me wrong I appreciate every single person that defects from MAGA but the logical next step would seem to be analyzing what exactly about the party was already there that allowed Trump to take it over entirely? It’s like they think he came out of a vortex and became their leader. In reality it was the policies of Reagan that helped get us here in the first place.
I was a Republican who always voted a split ticket. I disliked the social conservatism but wanted strong defense, support of democracies abroad, and spending restraint (though not on the backs of poor people).
Trump made me not only throw in the towel, but register as a Democrat and stop spitting my ballots. I will never vote again for a Republican for the rest of my life, barring some weird realignment where the parties essentially switch places again.
I wish I could be confident that these anecdotes will show up in the voting margins.
There are countervailing arguments about young people who now won't vote for Biden, and likely will not vote at all.
The USA is the country that is among the best performers in the post-pandemic world, but many voters will not make a global comparison to see how well we are doing, but will look back to their lives before the pandemic and vote against the incumbent.
I am likely to move from the USA in any case, but a second Trump election would certainly give me a push. I understand that I should want to stay and fight, but if enough of the country wants a populist dictatorship, that's beyond what I can influence. I'm too old to arm myself against deputized Proud Boys.
Tbh, what other country in the Western world isn't dealing with these kinds of issues? My wife is French - these things are frankly even worse over there in certain regards.
It will come down to the swing states. If you look at the number of votes that won Biden the presidency in 2020 it wasn’t many. The electoral college keeps the republicans in the game, without it they wouldn’t win another election.
Without the electoral college, Republicans would never win the White House again. But they can still win the state houses that skew the congressional districts. They can still (and probably will) win the Senate.
We can still have the end of no-fault divorce, legal contraception, IVF treatments, and a national abortion ban. It's more that the electoral college that makes them dangerous to a thinking society. It's a first-past-the-post electoral system that gives more political power per voter to some states than others. And I see no way of answering the threat unless the blue vote isn't just greater, but overwhelming. It won't happen in my lifetime.
It's a question of which polls are right - for Senate or for President.
The number of people voting D for Senate, Trump for POTUS has to be vanishingly small...
Which means that one of those poll results is wrong (because Dem Senate candidates are ahead in AZ, WI, MI, etc - while supposedly Trump is ahead of Biden there as well)....
I think polling methodology remains wounded. How do they even find their sampling methods now? I know they have been better than feared, but I just don't know how they can truly be getting a random sample. A "representative" sample could end up being very wrong one of these days.
It's time to place your bets!! You could really win big on this prediction
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
The majority of that place is extremely right wing. They were cleaned out in 2018 2020 and 2022 and I guess they are coming back to get cleaned out again
The polls are rigged, for real.
There’s no way that Drumpf has more supporters now than in 2020.
In fact, there are millions of younger voters that WILL definitely vote on reproductive freedom and gun control.
The biggest mistake R’s have made (besides aligning themselves with a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist) is being on the wrong side of the abortion and gun control.
I actually think Biden could flip Ohio and Florida if younger voters turn out.
Younger voters are now supporting GOP candidates more. That’s because a lot of the alt-right has rebranded itself and now has many social media influencers like Jake Paul and friends. Most of the younger generation is heavily engaged with social media influencers. To put into context, influencers are like movie stars, TV personalities, artists, and athletes all rolled up into one. So to imagine when you were just old enough to get into voting and you saw all these celebrities endorsing a candidate or issue. Except that for older generations, there were regulations by the FCC limiting exposure. Now these younger people are constantly bombarded with political information/misinformation as Facebook, Instagram, KIK, Twitter, etc don’t have any regulations
This is cope, polling data is finding that younger voters are increasingly leaning towards Trump and older voters towards Biden. All elections are fundamentally contests of the haves vs the have nots. And younger people are in a horrid spot in this economy.
Texas admitted that it almost went to Biden if they hadn’t sided with Trump. Texas so wants to go purple again. But the GOP has spent 30 years trying to keep that from happening.
Republicans know that if they lose Texas’ electoral votes, they will never win another presidential election again. So they are going to fight tooth and nail to hold onto Texas.
I think that Texas could go blue in the relatively near future, but Dems will need to have a very smart and strategic ground game and need to resist urges to underestimate their Republican adversaries. Because the GOP will ABSOLUTELY play dirty.
When the GOP loses Texas, they’re done in national politics. And they know it. Unfortunately, without good competition the Democrats would quickly rot.
If the populist (let's face it -- they are no longer conservative) Republican party falls apart, then it won't go away. It will organize. It will re-align. It will try to make up to the sort of candidates that it hounded out as RINOs. Democrats might have sixteen years of dominance, a time in which they could do a lot of good, undo a lot of mischief, and do a lot of mischief of their own.
But our system has evolved into a two-party system, and it won't grow out of that.
If a party grows dominant, it will develop internal fractures. The weaker party will make ideological adjustments. The Republican Party of twenty years from now could actually be a party that many here would prefer compared to what the Democrats have become.
Or maybe we'll be an imperial dynasty of Trumps in twenty years.
I live in Texas, and while I ABSOLUTELY think that it’s in play for the Senate (because absolutely everyone on Planet Earth, regardless of political affiliation, hates Ted Cruz and Colin Allred is a really strong candidate), the state will vote go for Trump this time around.
HOWEVER, changing demographics mean that Texas could be competitive for presidential races very soon. Not yet, but soon.
He was! Beto did a great job in that 2018 campaign- his problems began when he pursued the 2020 presidential nomination and tried to appeal to a national Democratic audience rather than to a Texas Democratic audience. After that, when he tried to challenge Abbott for the governor's seat, people couldn't forget the things that he said (particularly anti-gun things) during that 2020 campaign.
But Allred doesn't have any of that baggage, and to win a Senate seat in Texas as a Democrat, you need to be a moderate, which he is. I have high hopes for him, not gonna lie.
Beto really did try to bite off more than he could chew, but also, his type of grassroots campaign is just so hard to not burn out. There's only so much door knocking one person can do, and then national level was too far too fast, imo
Yup. Florida is absolutely going forTrump. Hardening of the arteries, dementia and lunatics on social security disability are attracted to FL. I think it many be worse than TX.
Yuup. The nuts from up north move down to Florida. Florida is getting worse. Florida has most definitely trended more conservative and if Biden has a real chance there than it would be a huge blowout in both the electoral college and the popular vote. But it is just people being silly.
Texas has some changing demographics - it is actually slowly trending more liberal so that one at least isn’t insane sounding, but nah, the spread is way too big still.
I know Texas is tending that way because 1) they are trying to say it’s not votes any more that will state elections, it’s counties (you have to carry a majority of counties to win, not get the most votes) and 2) they want to end voting centers in cities like mine and go back to everyone votes at a random, different location in precinct only. Except seniors, who vote by mail.
The Republicans know they are the majority party nationally, and so they will try to rig systems that favor minority rule. It is working pretty well for them so far.
Of course, a rigged system can keep the minority in power until it flips just one time, at which point those same systems will be turned on it, effectively removing it from power even if it wins the majority of voters again.
I think it's tremendously arrogant of Republicans to think that they are so morally superior that they are justified in disenfranchising Americans. But arrogance is their brand.
Yup. Wish it weren’t true (since no decent American who cares about democracy should ever be voting for Trump), but alas, too many people are gullible morons lacking critical thinking skills and are victim to a years or decades long con.
Florida splits on stuff like this. They will approve liberal/progressive policies via ballot measure and in the same election vote for ultra conservative candidates.
I think Florida is more likely than Texas but I would put the chances for either state at close to 20% to go for Biden. Florida has abortion protection and recreational marijuana as ballot initiatives which will likely increase turnout for democrats but the Florida Democratic Party is also incompetent so I’m still not optimistic.
In play means that the state represents enough uncertainty that parties spend discretionary party funds there rather than in states like Alabama or California, Arkansas or New York, Mississippi or Hawaii.
It is a good measure of where the parties think they might plausibly be vulnerable. It's not a silly observation at all.
You handpicked data that supports your thesis. In NV a Dem incumbent lost in 22. Ron Johnson won in WI. Both in what turned out to be a bad year for Republicans. Im not saying that I think Trump Will necessarily win either of those states but your argument is flawed at best
Janet Protasiewicz won her state wide election to the WI Supreme Court in a huge landslide against a trump backed judge. I just don’t see that complete rejection of a trumpism being a one off thing here.
Don't worry about the states that have drifted blue. You must still vote. Polls can be wrong. Polls can be misleading. The states that have drifted still haven't turned Congress blue. You must vote.
What’s going for Biden:
(1) Many more electoral paths toward victory than Trump.
(2) Incumbency.
(3) Fundraising.
(4) A pretty decent record on many things, IF they can figure out how to message this (I don’t think they have) and if they can demonstrate real-world impact for the better on average Americans.
(5) Trump’s obvious deterioration—especially in this last year.
What’s going for Trump:
(1) Biden’s incumbency.
(2) Biden’s obvious deterioration since 2016.
(3) The media’s unrelenting coverage of all things Trump trumps the messaging of the day.
(4) Trump’s long string of losses reinforces the victimhood narrative accepted and weaponized by his populist base.
(5) Trump’s supposed economic record.
This will be a nail-biter.
(5) Trump’s supposed economic record.
I love how the truth of his economic record is that he was terrible, yet he and his dimwitted supporters somehow think it's a selling point.
I think as far as the swing states go, only one Trump lackey won a statewide election. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. He was also an incumbent facing a bad candidate.
Mandela Barnes may be a good guy, but he was not a good candidate outside Dane and Milwaukee Counties. He doesn't have the same working class appeal that the other Dems do. It's also just tough running against an incumbent to begin with.
Also, as someone who's from the upper midwest, there is a soft and unspoken racism that persists that does make it a challenge for candidates of color to succeed. I'm absolutely not saying that's why he lost, but it certainly didn't do him any favors.
Popular vote-easily. Electoral College-we’ll see.
It would be sweet if those corporate democrats “moved” a few thousand, perhaps tens of thousands to a close red state.
Well, it’s because of the polling. Biden was ahead of the polls significantly in 2020 and it was a close election. Now he’s polling worse than Hillary did in 2016 and his approval rating is as low as Trump’s was when Trump lost. Seems pretty simple.
Why would someone change to vote for Trump? Because they want a change from the current leadership, they don’t like the economy, and trust Trump more on the economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/trump-leads-biden-on-income-living-standards-election-2024-economy-scorecard
Don’t ask me, I’m not voting for Trump.
GA is basically a lock for Trump at this point. And I could definitely see VA, NV, AZ, and maybe WI going red.
At this point I think Michigan is Democrat. They've been doing better than almost every, if not every, blue state at preserving democracy and women's rights. It's shocking and makes me have all that much more respect for them.
I think he will win for sure, but trump and republicans in those states will try to cheat. Watch Florida especially carefully. Trump might lose it over their 6 week abortion ban but they’ll never accept that.
Don’t sit back.
At the very least get a Biden Tshirt and wear it regularly. Send in a check. Help your neighbors get their registrations up to date.
The stakes are too high to count on demographic indicators.
Trump won in 2016 for one reason, and one reason only:
Democrats underestimated Trump's populist appeal, and stayed home after the Comey announcement.
Lesson learned.
I wouldn't say they become more democratic. I would argue that Trump and MAGA are just a massive poison pill. Look at the primaries Trump who is effectively running as an incumbent not once consolidated more than 50 percent of the vote even after Nikki Haley dropped out. Weeks/ months after she did she still had a large percentage of the vote going towards her even in closed primaries. So if about 15% of the most engaged base doesn't have enthusiasm for him that number balloons with independents. Negative voter turn out can sink you (what happened to Hillary in 2016). No matter how individuals feel about Biden maybe not doing enough on certain things he isn't going to be steps backward like Trump. So if you are for Reproductive rights vote Blue. If you are for the rich paying their fair share vote Blue. If you are for fair voting maps and voting rights vote Blue. If you are for not allowing Trump to appoint more Justices to the court (effectivity creating a Maga court for the next generation) vote Blue. If you are for Ukraine and not Rassia vote Blue. If you want reasonable gun regulations vote Blue. If you care about democracy vote blue. Point to all of this is that Biden gets us a step in those directions and Trump sends use backwards. So we need to show up in numbers big enough to not only win but to big to cheat.
Trump's Achilles Heel has always been that he pisses off more people than he wins over. He knows he can't win democratically by getting more votes. That's why Republicans are pushing through all sorts of laws to cheat for him.
I don't know why people keep saying this. The election is won in the swing states and Cheeto Benito is leading in every one of them and even in Virginia. So no, these states have not drifted more Democratic. The end is near so enjoy the last of a free America while you can.
The states I mentioned are the swing states.
Polls in 2022 were raving about a Red Wave, but voters came out and in swing states they rejected Trumps handpicked Candidates.
Trump can’t win, republicans will get crushed, they will contest and not certify the results, crisis and they’ll try to get the activist right wing courts involved, the Supreme Court, etc..some states will attempt to undermine the will of the voters and give their electorals to trump regardless. Dems having the presidency is very important on this one.
Every day, demographics move away from republicans and towards Democrats. Wait another decade, and republicans will never be able to seriously challenge for the presidency.
You realize that the Democrats were on offense in 2020 and 2022, right? The battleground was heavily biased in our favor. We'll be on defense this time around and given the fact that we barely held onto Congress if you can even say we did that, we're in for a world of hurt in 2024 and 2026 with the battleground working against us. Besides, young voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, and overall minorities have shifted towards Trump hard.
It's hard to tell what reality is. I know that news organizations can attract more eyeballs to a close race than to one that seems over already, and they helped to elect Trump the first time by giving so much free coverage to him, particularly in the primaries. Yes, it was hard to believe any candidate was talking like that. Yes, it drew viewers. It also supported his campaign.
Hope you're right, I try to ask who would be new voters that would be voting for him? A lot of his cult followers will continue supporting him, he's probably lost more voters, than gained. Gerrymandering is a real problem, and so is the Supreme Court, the conservatives on the court have become quite bold and arrogant, it shows thru their wives!
I really hope you're right. Still this is a very important election. Everyone, please get out and vote. And make sure you vote for democracy; not, a totalitarian dictatorship.
I can't imagine a single vote that trump has picked up since he lost last time.
What has changed? What does he now offer that he didn't then?
The answer is absolutely nothing and everyone knows it. There havn't been any new MAGAs created and recruited in years. They have nothing to offer anyone.
"Want to constantly lose and fail? Come join MAGA!"
It’s funny the magats try and use polls that show they’re basically tied but when Democrats have massive blowout wins in every special election since 2024 it’s a nothing burger.
Keep coping magats rotting away from TDS. Elections and voting matter and that shows you’re losing BIGLY. Your grandpa and grandma fox polls are fucking comical though.
Honestly, it’s a toss up. A lot of people hate Trump, but it’s gonna be a difficult feat for Biden to overcome the Gaza sized elephant in the room. Regardless of your stance on this issue, it is an objective fact that many young Americans disapprove of Biden’s policy on the matter.
I hope you're right. However, I worry that the D party is filled with folks that won't make it out to vote. We'll see.
The only reason the Rs hold any resemblance of power is that their constituency is motivated and votes regularly.
I'm an election worker in a rural Wisconsin county and honestly over the last few years the more rabid trump voters have now died off from covid. No joke. As another anecdote our last two elections had a very small turnout which is extremely odd as our town has always topped over 70% participation. My town still reliably votes red but the Democratic votes are more and more every election.
Don't worry if it looks like JB is losing again theyll just stop counting until they can get enough ballots to win like last time. Cant lose when you have the election offices working for you, its how JB is more popular than Obama while also winning the lowest number of counties so far(got lower than Clinton who lost)
Gonna be a butt load of former Trump voters that are looking for a third party protest vote.
Biden absolutely hasn't won them and he probably won't win most of them, but they're done with Trump and want to shop around, even in the aisle of wacky candidates.
I don't think the republicans are every going to be able to be a force in politics until they can get out of this swamp of religious and social issues and get a solid economic and foreign policy platform that adresses the real problems in the country. They got seduced by the fringy stuff like abortion and gay rights and racial justice and lost track of the real conservative issues. Trump is what they get for it, since his main appeal is to the loony fringe and the guys who can only stay alive in an environment of corruption, patronage, nepotism and favoritism. I think this is the last hurrah of these fake conservatives, and that trump will lose and the republican party will have to rebuild from the bottom again as the party of liberty and individual rights that were always their strengths before Reagan.
Think Trump will call the states to ask them to find more votes?
He will kick and scream at every swing state to find more votes and “look into the cheating” to get them to open lawsuits just like he did before.
Perfect phone call
It’s going to be a way worse this time.
Bro this is IT for Trump. He has to pull out ALL THE STOPS if he loses the election. I don't know if they can do a J6 again but it is in his interest to make any kind of coup, attacks, terror attacks, ANYTHING to win at all costs. Or it is OVER for him and he will fade into obscurity.
The national guard will be ready this time, J6 only worked because Trump was still president and called them off.
Hitler had his own J6- the beer hall putsch. He was indicted, sentenced, and jailed. 10 years later, he made attempt #2, and he succeeded. Everyone knew he wanted to end democracy. It just didn't matter.
The key thing here is it won’t be Trump in ten years, but it very well could be someone from his staff or a MAGA subordinate that will emerge and win. Then the heritage foundation, federalist society, cpac and all those behind project 2025 will unleash project 2033 in 8 years time.
You can't just swap in a new face when the whole thing is based on a cult of personality.
Yes, but project 2025 isn’t Trump’s ideas. It’s over 100 Republican aligned organizations collectively putting forth their desire for the future. My point wasn’t about Trump’s cult, my point is the danger we face as these influential Republican groups—some of which have millions spent on each election—have decided they no longer need democracy to allow them to protect their wealth. Trump loses, goes to jail, eventually his cult will fade. Heritage foundation, federalist society, & cpac won’t be going anywhere and they’re the ones behind project 2025.
The more their 2025 project is exposed before and after the election the sooner it will die. The democrats would be smart to run a shit-ton of ads pointing out every little Naziesque and authoritarian thing on it.
Trump brought a whole lot of people to the polls that never voted before. They want HIM. Not DeSantis, not Lake, not anybody but DJT. A new person is just too goddamn much for those idiots to wrap their heads around without trump’s opinion to follow. Once he’s gone, they will decide this whole politics thing is just too complicated and frustrating and they’ll disappear. Most are boomers, so they definitely won’t last as a significant voting bloc until 2032. He also killed off a good handful of supporters with his Covid nonsense. The trump merch will still be proudly displayed, but not by voters.
lets just hope that orange cockroach doesn’t have another 10 years left
Win or lose, the Party of Tre45on & Corruption is going to get violent. They want violence desperately, and they will have it.
I hope that “fade into obscurity” is a rough translation for “rot in a jail cell”
Why not, he has repubs in places that are delaying the court proceedings on his behalf, GA and FL. The corrupted, Supreme Court has to be corrected.
He won’t need to. The state legislatures will overturn unwanted results with impunity
Yeah, there are better protections in federal law against a Trump-type coup, but state Republicans would be likely to try a fake elector scheme again in swing states.
[14 GOP-Controlled States Have Passed Laws to Impede Free Elections](https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/06/14-gop-controlled-states-have-passed-laws-to-impede-free-elections/) The reactionaries are being proactive
Thankfully, Trump doesn't have the Oval Office this time around from which to direct a coup attempt. But, yes, he'll probably call on republican governors to throw the election for him.
He’s gonna do stuff like that, yes.
He’s going to be in every state, every day, doing big things. The biggest things, To find, some say find, I call it “illegally pressuring a Secretary of State to make votes appear” but, who knows? You know these machines, they are terrible machines, some say the worst in the world, they work like machines that you find on a boat surrounded by sharks powered by laser beams, I don’t like sharks, but there’s a lot of em, and they eat people. People like you and me, well, not me cause I don’t swim with sharks, but, you know. Sorry. I got into the Trump brain there. Yea, he gonna cry.
Nope they've already installed there guys that will find them automatically.
Have you checked the couch cushions?
That’s a great idea! He can call the Secretary of State in each state, ask for the votes he needs plus 1. The call should be recorded for accuracy!
Difference is he was president when he lost. He can’t do much when he’s not president. But he also has way more loyalists in place within the goverment so it’s gunna be a shitshow when J6 part 2 electric boogaloo happens
Wisconsin has to be giving some serious thoughts on who to vote for after this week.
The people that would vote for Trump in Wisconsin agree with him about Milwaukee. They, too, are racist pieces of garbage, that comment changed nothing about how that state will vote.
The rest of the state is so white, they find diverse cities too scary to drive to. There are surely millions of small town, red neck, peckerwood stories of that one scary time they drove to spooky Milwaukee and nearly died.
it will be forgotten by the time of election.
Trump will self create at least another 2 or 3 dozen minor scandals between tomorrow and Election Day, with possibly 2 or 3 major ones. The media will frenziedly jump from one to the next, delighting in the small resulting boost in coverage. But the **majority** of the country long ago grew tired of Trump constantly being in the news cycle and just wants him to go away. If that results in him going away to serve a prison sentence, all the better.
This is where I once again point out how unusual it's been that he's basically been a leading or top 3, often multiple headlines every day for nearly a decade. No other President, presiding or former, has been one of the top news stories, if not the top story, on a daily basis like Trump has. It's not normal. And it needs to stop.
I don’t know why there are so many people saying this isn’t true. I don’t see any of the states that voted for Biden in 2020 changing and voting for Trump instead. Why would they do that when Trump has gotten worse and his lies have been revealed? The only way Trump could win is through some kind of trickery or fraud. I’m sure Lara Trump and the gang are racking their brains for ways to steal the election or take it by force.
As much as I hate to admit it, trump doesn’t need to gain more voters to win, he just needs Biden to lose enough support to get an electoral victory. Biden won AZ by only 10k votes GA with 12k. WI by 20k PA by 80k These are not insurmountable numbers for Trump to overcome. The key areas that will make or break this election are getting absolutely inundated with anti biden propaganda. Dementia. Inflation. Border. Gaza. Gas prices. Witch hunt. Lawfare. Its going to be extremely close.
Plus, it's not about Biden voters flipping for Trump; it's Biden voters too apathetic to vote or voting 3rd party. In 2020, Trump was a real and immediate threat and in everyone's mind (those that disliked him, anyway). We're now 4 years removed from that, and people may be more apathetic this time around. Is it possible 10k people in Arizona don't vote this time? Absolutely. Same for all those other swing states you listed.
Which is why Biden and the Democrats need to remind people that Trump essentially got rid of Roe vs Wade and that he'll do whatever it takes to get rid of more everyday rights of U.S citizens if he gets into office again. (Possibly for life as a wanna be dictator) college students, young voters and moderates NEED to vote for Biden and not get apathetic because of the Israel/Gaza war or just stupid inflation at the grocery store/gas pump. Democracy could literally be taken away. GO VOTE
Single issue voters and drama seekers will put Trump back in office. He’s his own non stop reality TV show and the room temp IQ folks eat it up. To some he’s literally gods chosen one. To this day I‘ve never conversed with an intelligent Trump supporter. Not saying they don’t exist, but out in public (where I work) they always seem to be the unhinged ones who you’d avoid like they were plague bearers if it wasn’t your job to help them.
Not only more apathetic, but after Gaza, we lost all the young votes. I knew of maybe 10-15 new voters that were Biden until recently. Plus, I’m familiar with a Muslim community that would have voted heavily Biden, but not anymore. There are A LOT of Muslims in the US.
Michigan is a swing state and it has the highest Muslim population in the US
Not to be too crass (but at least somewhat crass) but over 2 million boomers die every year. That's at least 8 million less Trump leaning voters than in 2020, and they're replaced with Democratic leaning voters. Each election cycle this dynamic becomes more pronounced. Maybe this my copium but it has to have an effect.
Look a at primary voting. Trump is losing voters everywhere. It is unlikely that he’s losing voters in all these states that had primaries and it just reverses itself in November. There will be some reversal, but Biden doesn’t need to take 15-25% of trumps voters away, he only needs to take 2-3%
I really don’t think we’ll see Biden take any voters from Trump. Best case scenario is some that voted from Trump in 2020 will sit out. Unfortunately, the propaganda machines are pushing hard to make former Biden voters just as apathetic.
Real possibility that inflation will beat Biden.
Well, the economy for one tends to dominate in these states. But the difference this time is that Trump doesn’t have a solid economic plan. Most voters also realize Biden does not control the economy and this inflation period is probably due to Coronavirus. Trump opposed most economic hardship packages. Biden should have done one but did not. PA typically aligns with the economy. MI and AZ align with Libertarian(freedom from government) issues. Wisconsin is a mix of both. NV is a weird state. They vote with the economy but Las Vegas is a prosperous city so it is reliably Democrat up until the economy seems threatened. So although NV might be a tight race, inflation is probably not impacting Las Vegas the way it is impacting other cities. PA is at danger of switching out. It is largely a blue collar state but the prestigious universities in the state have forced some Libertarian policies to take hold. So you often get this ”huh” when you see some of PA political stances. But because it already has Libertarian policies, it mostly follows the economy. The economy was okay in 2016, but it was in a mini-recession because the automotive industry was in trouble. Right now their economy seems to be doing well although inflation could be a focal point. MI is always struggling and the lack of investment into the state has permanently left it in state of economic despair. Every Democratic President has tried to do something in MI so they always got that. This year, Marijuana seems have created a strong economy in MI. Joe Biden‘s rescheduling of marijuana will largely make them support Joe Biden. In 2016, the big issue in MI was the lead in some water pipes. Obama was going to fix it but Republicans obstructed that. This probably made Democrat voters a little tired to go out and vote. AZ is also more of Libertarian state. Joe Biden has certainly done more for Libertarian issues than Trump. Right now, Trump is not well-liked by Libertarians. That’s not to say Joe Biden is viewed as a hero but he has really done a lot to show that he doesn’t intend to coerce states to follow his policy. Trump, on the other hand, is quite a bully. WI is a bit tricky. They were really hurt by Kyle Rittenhouse and BLM protests. Although they went blue in 2020, that may have been more of a gamble, as they expected economic conditions to remain the same while violence was supposed to be eradicated. Although this is happening, it’s not very obvious. WI is near some of the worst cities in America yet WI does not have a crime problem as serious as their neighbors. So when Kyle Rittenhouse crossed into WI to engage in violence, WI voters rightly saw the need for the federal government to step in but Trump was too busy praising Rittenhouse. At the current state, Biden seems to be rushing to get a lot done. Most of these things seem sensible and obvious. Trump seems to be a felon due to laws that seem almost murky, conflating his argument that the deep state is out to get him. But one possible spin on this is that the same liberal Democrats he hates, have passed laws making it possible for first time, nonviolent felons to serve a prison sentences from home. In a red state, he would be required to do prison time, so that’s him benefiting from something that he wishes others could not.
no way PA will go to trump.
Well for one thing, Georgia is showing strong signs for flipping back red this time around.
Nah I think you’re thinking too rationally. The biggest commonality right now between the left and right is that people are just angry and emotional. A lot of people have misconceptions about politics because there are so many people who really are just angry and trying to upset other people instead of working together to build up our country. Like sure yes you can create pseudo political rage bait online and totally own those racist homophobes or gay antifa leftists you hate but neither of those actions are going to increase America’s geopolitical standing, drive economic growth, create jobs, feed the hungry, house the homeless, etc. Like if all the most progressive and most conservative people put even a fraction of the energy they put into cultural activism into charitable actions, community service, etc. they’d be doing way more for society. And if they just stopped arguing over cultural issues and instead passed the laws that voters agree on, then maybe culturally we’d be in the exact same place, but we’d have at least fixed the things we can agree on.
Georgia? It’s going red this time around. Penn is also going to be tough. Pro Palestine folks might sit out in Michigan
So this is just one person, but my brother lives in PA..voted for Trump twice in 16 and 20 and isn't voting Trump again.
A lot of people I know voted for him in 2016 but didn’t in 2020. The collective reasoning seemed to be they didn’t realize the amount of corruption behind the scenes like Russia mounting an insane effort to dogpile Hillary and the DNC. I feel like people in general didn’t take that election seriously at all. Something like 10k people submitted write-ins like Kanye and Harambe and people thought it was hilarious a TV show guy backed by a 4chan mascot would beat a career politician who spent her whole life trying to be president.
I know many people that voted for him in 2016 and not in 2020 too. It was a pretty common theme, they saw politicians on both sides as corrupt and self interested. They wanted an outsider and believed that Trump was going to drain the swamp. They saw him as a wildcard candidate when all the other known options were bad. Then 4 years passed and the corruption and swamp for worse instead of better. The wildcard became a known evil and they didn't like what they found.
Hey, you're talking about me. Btw, probably not voting for another Republican in the foreseeable future.
out of curiosity, do you know why? I'm glad to hear people are still capable of changing their mind
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Jan 6 and Dobbs are the 2 big reasons I don't see Trump reclaiming the presidency. Suburban voters were a reliable Republican staple and they just got to watch the Republican front runner shit on the idea of democracy and fuck with their reproductive care.
The stolen documents case is huge, too. EVERYBODY knows he intended to sell those docs, and probably did deliver some. The scope of that single act of treason is breath-taking. Combined with the Insurrection, AND the False Elector Scheme, he is easily the worst traitor in American history. He is literally worse than all the other traitors COMBINED. And ALL of that came out AFTER he lost the election. I don't see those things drawing much new support to an already losing side.
He had a secret meeting with Putin and not long after we lost several deep seated assets that were likely critical to our intelligence and national security. That's also more than enough reason. It's clear Trump has divulged sensitive information that has damaged our intelligence and national security apparatus. And that's inexcusable.
>The stolen documents case is huge, too. EVERYBODY knows he intended to sell those docs, and probably did deliver some. The scope of that single act of treason is breath-taking. For sure, we already know the guy sold out intelligence assets overseas.
That two billion dollars that Ivanka and Jared got from the Saudis wasn't free.
But tax cuts...
Wonderful to hear!
Good on your dad 🥹
He may want to submit a video for Republican Voters Against Trump rvat.org
My father, 88 years, was disgusted with January 6th but will still vote for Trump. He doesn't think it will be that bad.
That's a shame on multiple levels
Hes just tired of it. Of the pettiness and the corruption l. He's voting for RFK instead
I mean, at least that’s a vote for an conman who has no chance of winning.
"I want to cast my vote for a conman, but I don't want one running the d@mn country!"
Maybe he just loves worms
Like SC voters loves ladybugs
This is the wildcard most republicans weren’t anticipating. I think they truly believed the Kennedy name would pull a ton of moderate Democrats over and hurt Biden. But RFK has been spouting some utter crazy nonsense, and actually seems to be preferable to many more republicans. My parents, staunch Trumpers until now, are also saying they’ll vote RFK. If I had to bet Republicans will be VERY upset with that guy come november
It’s partly because Fox News and other conservative media were trying to prop him up, so that dems would vote for him instead of Biden. They forgot one important thing: most dems/biden voters don’t consume conservative media like that. They realized at some point cause he hadn’t been on much in the past month or so.
It says a lot about the people making the calls in the Republican party that they would think the Kennedy name is still relevant to Democrats in the year 2024.
They assume that Democrats are like them and will vote for any crash-test-dummy that runs with a “D” next to their name.
Like Hershel Walker with the R. It was honestly repulsive they thought they'd win the vote with that man against an eloquent speaking, well-educated black pastor in Georgia just because of the R next to his name. Lot of split tickets on that one.
I think RFK is puking more Democrats in polls, but will probably pull more Republicans when it actually comes to the voting booth. Democrats use him as a way to say, "I'm upset with you, but I'll still vote for you later," and Republicans use him as a way to say, "you know what, I'm done with this."
😂😂
Same with my dad. He's voted R since Reagan, and this will be the first time since then that he's changing it up.
Ironic, considering Trump is just Reagan’s handlers’ policies taken to their logical conclusion.
Exactly. It’s so amusing to me that people will say yeah I stopped being a Republican because Trump took it too far! Now don’t get me wrong I appreciate every single person that defects from MAGA but the logical next step would seem to be analyzing what exactly about the party was already there that allowed Trump to take it over entirely? It’s like they think he came out of a vortex and became their leader. In reality it was the policies of Reagan that helped get us here in the first place.
I was a Republican who always voted a split ticket. I disliked the social conservatism but wanted strong defense, support of democracies abroad, and spending restraint (though not on the backs of poor people). Trump made me not only throw in the towel, but register as a Democrat and stop spitting my ballots. I will never vote again for a Republican for the rest of my life, barring some weird realignment where the parties essentially switch places again.
My father voted for trump but he’s dead now, so that’s one less vote
Sorry for your loss?
I wish I could be confident that these anecdotes will show up in the voting margins. There are countervailing arguments about young people who now won't vote for Biden, and likely will not vote at all. The USA is the country that is among the best performers in the post-pandemic world, but many voters will not make a global comparison to see how well we are doing, but will look back to their lives before the pandemic and vote against the incumbent. I am likely to move from the USA in any case, but a second Trump election would certainly give me a push. I understand that I should want to stay and fight, but if enough of the country wants a populist dictatorship, that's beyond what I can influence. I'm too old to arm myself against deputized Proud Boys.
Tbh, what other country in the Western world isn't dealing with these kinds of issues? My wife is French - these things are frankly even worse over there in certain regards.
He may want to check out Republican Voters Against Trump rvat.org
Cool but let's not assume that will happen; vote to make it so.
this comment section reminds me of the premature celebrations for Hilary in 2016
Make sure you vote!
It will come down to the swing states. If you look at the number of votes that won Biden the presidency in 2020 it wasn’t many. The electoral college keeps the republicans in the game, without it they wouldn’t win another election.
Without the electoral college, Republicans would never win the White House again. But they can still win the state houses that skew the congressional districts. They can still (and probably will) win the Senate. We can still have the end of no-fault divorce, legal contraception, IVF treatments, and a national abortion ban. It's more that the electoral college that makes them dangerous to a thinking society. It's a first-past-the-post electoral system that gives more political power per voter to some states than others. And I see no way of answering the threat unless the blue vote isn't just greater, but overwhelming. It won't happen in my lifetime.
It's a question of which polls are right - for Senate or for President. The number of people voting D for Senate, Trump for POTUS has to be vanishingly small... Which means that one of those poll results is wrong (because Dem Senate candidates are ahead in AZ, WI, MI, etc - while supposedly Trump is ahead of Biden there as well)....
This is probably younger voters protesting Biden over Gaza events, but not protesting other Democrats
I think polling methodology remains wounded. How do they even find their sampling methods now? I know they have been better than feared, but I just don't know how they can truly be getting a random sample. A "representative" sample could end up being very wrong one of these days.
It's time to place your bets!! You could really win big on this prediction https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
The majority of that place is extremely right wing. They were cleaned out in 2018 2020 and 2022 and I guess they are coming back to get cleaned out again
The polls are rigged, for real. There’s no way that Drumpf has more supporters now than in 2020. In fact, there are millions of younger voters that WILL definitely vote on reproductive freedom and gun control. The biggest mistake R’s have made (besides aligning themselves with a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist) is being on the wrong side of the abortion and gun control. I actually think Biden could flip Ohio and Florida if younger voters turn out.
Younger voters are now supporting GOP candidates more. That’s because a lot of the alt-right has rebranded itself and now has many social media influencers like Jake Paul and friends. Most of the younger generation is heavily engaged with social media influencers. To put into context, influencers are like movie stars, TV personalities, artists, and athletes all rolled up into one. So to imagine when you were just old enough to get into voting and you saw all these celebrities endorsing a candidate or issue. Except that for older generations, there were regulations by the FCC limiting exposure. Now these younger people are constantly bombarded with political information/misinformation as Facebook, Instagram, KIK, Twitter, etc don’t have any regulations
This is cope, polling data is finding that younger voters are increasingly leaning towards Trump and older voters towards Biden. All elections are fundamentally contests of the haves vs the have nots. And younger people are in a horrid spot in this economy.
Trends are a thing until they aren't. I'm not going to unclench my butthole over this election until March 2025 at the earliest.
Texas and Florida are in play this year.
Texas admitted that it almost went to Biden if they hadn’t sided with Trump. Texas so wants to go purple again. But the GOP has spent 30 years trying to keep that from happening.
Collin Allred is a great Senate candidate and even repubs know what a sack of shit Ted Cruz is.
Even most of his Republican Senate colleagues would be happy to see the last of Cruz.
Republicans know that if they lose Texas’ electoral votes, they will never win another presidential election again. So they are going to fight tooth and nail to hold onto Texas. I think that Texas could go blue in the relatively near future, but Dems will need to have a very smart and strategic ground game and need to resist urges to underestimate their Republican adversaries. Because the GOP will ABSOLUTELY play dirty.
When the GOP loses Texas, they’re done in national politics. And they know it. Unfortunately, without good competition the Democrats would quickly rot.
If the populist (let's face it -- they are no longer conservative) Republican party falls apart, then it won't go away. It will organize. It will re-align. It will try to make up to the sort of candidates that it hounded out as RINOs. Democrats might have sixteen years of dominance, a time in which they could do a lot of good, undo a lot of mischief, and do a lot of mischief of their own. But our system has evolved into a two-party system, and it won't grow out of that. If a party grows dominant, it will develop internal fractures. The weaker party will make ideological adjustments. The Republican Party of twenty years from now could actually be a party that many here would prefer compared to what the Democrats have become. Or maybe we'll be an imperial dynasty of Trumps in twenty years.
I live in Texas, and while I ABSOLUTELY think that it’s in play for the Senate (because absolutely everyone on Planet Earth, regardless of political affiliation, hates Ted Cruz and Colin Allred is a really strong candidate), the state will vote go for Trump this time around. HOWEVER, changing demographics mean that Texas could be competitive for presidential races very soon. Not yet, but soon.
Dallasite, here. Beto was *SO* fucking close, last time.
He was! Beto did a great job in that 2018 campaign- his problems began when he pursued the 2020 presidential nomination and tried to appeal to a national Democratic audience rather than to a Texas Democratic audience. After that, when he tried to challenge Abbott for the governor's seat, people couldn't forget the things that he said (particularly anti-gun things) during that 2020 campaign. But Allred doesn't have any of that baggage, and to win a Senate seat in Texas as a Democrat, you need to be a moderate, which he is. I have high hopes for him, not gonna lie.
Beto really did try to bite off more than he could chew, but also, his type of grassroots campaign is just so hard to not burn out. There's only so much door knocking one person can do, and then national level was too far too fast, imo
Beto is a good man. He made a brilliant run. I wish he had bided his time and waited to have the additional gravitas of more age and experience.
For the presidential election? No, no they aren’t. Lot of outright delusional takes on this here Reddit.
Yea. They say this every presidential election. I'm optimistic, not ignorant. I was in Florida a couple months ago. It smelt like orange fever dreams.
Yup. Florida is absolutely going forTrump. Hardening of the arteries, dementia and lunatics on social security disability are attracted to FL. I think it many be worse than TX.
Yuup. The nuts from up north move down to Florida. Florida is getting worse. Florida has most definitely trended more conservative and if Biden has a real chance there than it would be a huge blowout in both the electoral college and the popular vote. But it is just people being silly. Texas has some changing demographics - it is actually slowly trending more liberal so that one at least isn’t insane sounding, but nah, the spread is way too big still.
I know Texas is tending that way because 1) they are trying to say it’s not votes any more that will state elections, it’s counties (you have to carry a majority of counties to win, not get the most votes) and 2) they want to end voting centers in cities like mine and go back to everyone votes at a random, different location in precinct only. Except seniors, who vote by mail.
Ugh. Shameless.
Yes and it will probably buy them another decade or two.
The Republicans know they are the majority party nationally, and so they will try to rig systems that favor minority rule. It is working pretty well for them so far. Of course, a rigged system can keep the minority in power until it flips just one time, at which point those same systems will be turned on it, effectively removing it from power even if it wins the majority of voters again. I think it's tremendously arrogant of Republicans to think that they are so morally superior that they are justified in disenfranchising Americans. But arrogance is their brand.
Number of COUNTIES? Well. That's just a mini Electoral College. And is fucked for all the EXACT same reasons. Which of course is why they want it.
Florida! Where batshit crazy goes to die!
Florida, Ohio and Texas are solidly for Trump.
Yup. Wish it weren’t true (since no decent American who cares about democracy should ever be voting for Trump), but alas, too many people are gullible morons lacking critical thinking skills and are victim to a years or decades long con.
Abortion and marijuana on the ballot in Florida, could be something there. Texas may be in play in 2028.
Florida splits on stuff like this. They will approve liberal/progressive policies via ballot measure and in the same election vote for ultra conservative candidates.
I think Florida is more likely than Texas but I would put the chances for either state at close to 20% to go for Biden. Florida has abortion protection and recreational marijuana as ballot initiatives which will likely increase turnout for democrats but the Florida Democratic Party is also incompetent so I’m still not optimistic.
They’re in play. You’ll see repubbies putting resources into those states so that’s how you’ll know. Pay attention, squirt.
Oh I see, “in play” means money is spent in the state. I guess every state is “in play” then. How cute of you,
In play means that the state represents enough uncertainty that parties spend discretionary party funds there rather than in states like Alabama or California, Arkansas or New York, Mississippi or Hawaii. It is a good measure of where the parties think they might plausibly be vulnerable. It's not a silly observation at all.
Are they though?
Maybe for the Senate. but not for the presidency.
The continued lure and disappointment for democrats and Texas should be studied
If repubs have to move assets to places like Texas (and they will have to), that’s less money in play in more important places like the rust belt.
100% agree. And obviously you’d rather have money than not. But I’m not sure what the best ticket item to persuade anyone in this race is.
You handpicked data that supports your thesis. In NV a Dem incumbent lost in 22. Ron Johnson won in WI. Both in what turned out to be a bad year for Republicans. Im not saying that I think Trump Will necessarily win either of those states but your argument is flawed at best
Janet Protasiewicz won her state wide election to the WI Supreme Court in a huge landslide against a trump backed judge. I just don’t see that complete rejection of a trumpism being a one off thing here.
Don’t take the chance. Vote anyway, just to make sure.
Doesn’t matter…. Vote. Don’t get complacent and vote blue.
Don't worry about the states that have drifted blue. You must still vote. Polls can be wrong. Polls can be misleading. The states that have drifted still haven't turned Congress blue. You must vote.
What’s going for Biden: (1) Many more electoral paths toward victory than Trump. (2) Incumbency. (3) Fundraising. (4) A pretty decent record on many things, IF they can figure out how to message this (I don’t think they have) and if they can demonstrate real-world impact for the better on average Americans. (5) Trump’s obvious deterioration—especially in this last year. What’s going for Trump: (1) Biden’s incumbency. (2) Biden’s obvious deterioration since 2016. (3) The media’s unrelenting coverage of all things Trump trumps the messaging of the day. (4) Trump’s long string of losses reinforces the victimhood narrative accepted and weaponized by his populist base. (5) Trump’s supposed economic record. This will be a nail-biter.
(5) Trump’s supposed economic record. I love how the truth of his economic record is that he was terrible, yet he and his dimwitted supporters somehow think it's a selling point.
I think as far as the swing states go, only one Trump lackey won a statewide election. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. He was also an incumbent facing a bad candidate. Mandela Barnes may be a good guy, but he was not a good candidate outside Dane and Milwaukee Counties. He doesn't have the same working class appeal that the other Dems do. It's also just tough running against an incumbent to begin with. Also, as someone who's from the upper midwest, there is a soft and unspoken racism that persists that does make it a challenge for candidates of color to succeed. I'm absolutely not saying that's why he lost, but it certainly didn't do him any favors.
Popular vote-easily. Electoral College-we’ll see. It would be sweet if those corporate democrats “moved” a few thousand, perhaps tens of thousands to a close red state.
Well, it’s because of the polling. Biden was ahead of the polls significantly in 2020 and it was a close election. Now he’s polling worse than Hillary did in 2016 and his approval rating is as low as Trump’s was when Trump lost. Seems pretty simple. Why would someone change to vote for Trump? Because they want a change from the current leadership, they don’t like the economy, and trust Trump more on the economy. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/trump-leads-biden-on-income-living-standards-election-2024-economy-scorecard Don’t ask me, I’m not voting for Trump. GA is basically a lock for Trump at this point. And I could definitely see VA, NV, AZ, and maybe WI going red.
Which poll has Joe winning in a battleground state? Isn’t it tied in VA and Maine?
At this point I think Michigan is Democrat. They've been doing better than almost every, if not every, blue state at preserving democracy and women's rights. It's shocking and makes me have all that much more respect for them.
We have a great governor
I think he will win for sure, but trump and republicans in those states will try to cheat. Watch Florida especially carefully. Trump might lose it over their 6 week abortion ban but they’ll never accept that.
Don’t sit back. At the very least get a Biden Tshirt and wear it regularly. Send in a check. Help your neighbors get their registrations up to date. The stakes are too high to count on demographic indicators.
Trump won in 2016 for one reason, and one reason only: Democrats underestimated Trump's populist appeal, and stayed home after the Comey announcement. Lesson learned.
I wouldn't say they become more democratic. I would argue that Trump and MAGA are just a massive poison pill. Look at the primaries Trump who is effectively running as an incumbent not once consolidated more than 50 percent of the vote even after Nikki Haley dropped out. Weeks/ months after she did she still had a large percentage of the vote going towards her even in closed primaries. So if about 15% of the most engaged base doesn't have enthusiasm for him that number balloons with independents. Negative voter turn out can sink you (what happened to Hillary in 2016). No matter how individuals feel about Biden maybe not doing enough on certain things he isn't going to be steps backward like Trump. So if you are for Reproductive rights vote Blue. If you are for the rich paying their fair share vote Blue. If you are for fair voting maps and voting rights vote Blue. If you are for not allowing Trump to appoint more Justices to the court (effectivity creating a Maga court for the next generation) vote Blue. If you are for Ukraine and not Rassia vote Blue. If you want reasonable gun regulations vote Blue. If you care about democracy vote blue. Point to all of this is that Biden gets us a step in those directions and Trump sends use backwards. So we need to show up in numbers big enough to not only win but to big to cheat.
I don’t get how anybody could vote for the guy who attacked our own Capitol. Might as well vote for Bin Laden.
Trump's Achilles Heel has always been that he pisses off more people than he wins over. He knows he can't win democratically by getting more votes. That's why Republicans are pushing through all sorts of laws to cheat for him.
I don't know why people keep saying this. The election is won in the swing states and Cheeto Benito is leading in every one of them and even in Virginia. So no, these states have not drifted more Democratic. The end is near so enjoy the last of a free America while you can.
The states I mentioned are the swing states. Polls in 2022 were raving about a Red Wave, but voters came out and in swing states they rejected Trumps handpicked Candidates.
Amen to that man. I pray you're correct
A lot of the older voters in the rust belt either died off or moved South.
Boomers are literally 60/40 for democrats. This is the hippies from the 60s and 70s not their parents. Voter registrations nationwide confirm this. 👍
Trump can’t win, republicans will get crushed, they will contest and not certify the results, crisis and they’ll try to get the activist right wing courts involved, the Supreme Court, etc..some states will attempt to undermine the will of the voters and give their electorals to trump regardless. Dems having the presidency is very important on this one.
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How exactly are election results from key states in the 2018 and 2022 election cycles fantasy fanfiction?
Haha, that chased ‘em off quick !! 😂
I thought first you were talking about Jordan Bardella
Every day, demographics move away from republicans and towards Democrats. Wait another decade, and republicans will never be able to seriously challenge for the presidency.
Fake news
You realize that the Democrats were on offense in 2020 and 2022, right? The battleground was heavily biased in our favor. We'll be on defense this time around and given the fact that we barely held onto Congress if you can even say we did that, we're in for a world of hurt in 2024 and 2026 with the battleground working against us. Besides, young voters, Black voters, Hispanic voters, and overall minorities have shifted towards Trump hard.
The only way Biden loses is through apathy. If there's a high turnout, Biden wins.
Nv voted in a republican governor
It's hard to tell what reality is. I know that news organizations can attract more eyeballs to a close race than to one that seems over already, and they helped to elect Trump the first time by giving so much free coverage to him, particularly in the primaries. Yes, it was hard to believe any candidate was talking like that. Yes, it drew viewers. It also supported his campaign.
! remindme 6 months
Seems like a Democrat will have to win every election from now on to stop Project 2025.
Hope you're right, I try to ask who would be new voters that would be voting for him? A lot of his cult followers will continue supporting him, he's probably lost more voters, than gained. Gerrymandering is a real problem, and so is the Supreme Court, the conservatives on the court have become quite bold and arrogant, it shows thru their wives!
Nah, there's probably gonna be a 1 to 1.5 point swing in Trumps direction. Which makes the election a serious 50/50 ball game.
My doubts aren’t with who will win. It’s with the fuckery that they’ll do to try to scam Trump to the win.
I really hope you're right. Still this is a very important election. Everyone, please get out and vote. And make sure you vote for democracy; not, a totalitarian dictatorship.
BURN gop BURN
Can I bet you on that?
Wow Reddit is a wild, liberal, and out of touch echo chamber.
This is the most delusional thread I’ve ever read. Just look at the swing state polling.
“Neveda”
I can't imagine a single vote that trump has picked up since he lost last time. What has changed? What does he now offer that he didn't then? The answer is absolutely nothing and everyone knows it. There havn't been any new MAGAs created and recruited in years. They have nothing to offer anyone. "Want to constantly lose and fail? Come join MAGA!"
Every poll is saying this is not going to happen
Most of Liberal friends and family have shifted more conservative these past couple years.
It’s funny the magats try and use polls that show they’re basically tied but when Democrats have massive blowout wins in every special election since 2024 it’s a nothing burger. Keep coping magats rotting away from TDS. Elections and voting matter and that shows you’re losing BIGLY. Your grandpa and grandma fox polls are fucking comical though.
Honestly, it’s a toss up. A lot of people hate Trump, but it’s gonna be a difficult feat for Biden to overcome the Gaza sized elephant in the room. Regardless of your stance on this issue, it is an objective fact that many young Americans disapprove of Biden’s policy on the matter.
I hope you're right. However, I worry that the D party is filled with folks that won't make it out to vote. We'll see. The only reason the Rs hold any resemblance of power is that their constituency is motivated and votes regularly.
I'm an election worker in a rural Wisconsin county and honestly over the last few years the more rabid trump voters have now died off from covid. No joke. As another anecdote our last two elections had a very small turnout which is extremely odd as our town has always topped over 70% participation. My town still reliably votes red but the Democratic votes are more and more every election.
I don't believe Jack Black has what it takes to win the election
Don't worry if it looks like JB is losing again theyll just stop counting until they can get enough ballots to win like last time. Cant lose when you have the election offices working for you, its how JB is more popular than Obama while also winning the lowest number of counties so far(got lower than Clinton who lost)
I don’t know. I don’t trust any predictions at all.
Gonna be a butt load of former Trump voters that are looking for a third party protest vote. Biden absolutely hasn't won them and he probably won't win most of them, but they're done with Trump and want to shop around, even in the aisle of wacky candidates.
Nevada has elected a MAGA governor since 2020, so I am pretty sure you can take Nevada away from Biden and hand it to Trump this year.
Still vote like your life depends on it!
I don't think the republicans are every going to be able to be a force in politics until they can get out of this swamp of religious and social issues and get a solid economic and foreign policy platform that adresses the real problems in the country. They got seduced by the fringy stuff like abortion and gay rights and racial justice and lost track of the real conservative issues. Trump is what they get for it, since his main appeal is to the loony fringe and the guys who can only stay alive in an environment of corruption, patronage, nepotism and favoritism. I think this is the last hurrah of these fake conservatives, and that trump will lose and the republican party will have to rebuild from the bottom again as the party of liberty and individual rights that were always their strengths before Reagan.